Do Polls Really Matter?

With a week or so to go before the next Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the question arises – “Do the polls really matter at this point?” The short answer to that is Yes and No.

Much has changed about polling itself that makes one wonder if the entire system doesn’t need to be brought into the 21st Century. A recent internal Gallup report noted that most of the leading polling firms are using black-and-white, analog methods in a multi-cultural, digital world.

The rise of the cell phone, the ability to screen or block incoming calls, and the fact that more and more people have a phone number that doesn’t reflect where they actually live has made the certainty of polling results less than reliable.

Polls Have Always Been Propaganda

The 1980 election is case in point of how skewed polling results are when it comes to national party politics. For months, polls predicted Jimmy Carter having a sure win over Ronald Reagan at best or anyone’s guess at worst. When all was said and done, Reagan garnered a landslide victory with pollsters and pundits of all persuasions stymied by the outcome.

John F. Stacks of TIME wrote, “In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan was ‘too close to call.’ A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.”

Though the polls predicted a different outcome, Reagan defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular vote and by a 10-1 margin in the electoral college. The incumbent Carter only managed to hold only six states and the District of Columbia.

More recently, Mitt Romney was seen as in a dead heat with Barak Obama in 2012 but lost by a sizeable margin. Prognosticators like Karl Rove argued until the count was well under way that Romney had a legitimate chance of unseating the incumbent. Rove proved that he was as mired in the past as the pollsters.

They’re Only Irrelevant if They Go Against You

At this point, it’s important to remember that, while polls can vary widely and be dead wrong at times, it is a mistake to discount them as irrelevant. Eric Bolling, for example, said on FOX’s The Five, “These polls .. They’re insane with the polls! Look at a Trump rally! There’s twelve, fifteen, ten thousand people!…Size of crowds is more indicative of following.”

While Trump’s crowds are more than impressive, crowd size is not always indicative of the final vote on a national level. Steve Kozinac, a political correspondent for MSNBC, rightfully point out that Walter Mondale drew huge crowds in the final days before his shellacking at the hands of Ronald Reagan.

Bolling is misguided to discount the polls for a number of reasons. For one, Trump made much over the polling during the primaries and to discount them now is a sign of desperation, not confidence.

Trump’s campaign spokesperson, Kellyanne Conway has said that the best attitude toward polls is respect – report them when you’re ahead and use them as an incentive when you’re behind.

One blogger takes issue with Ms. Conway’s take on polls. He writes, “Most of us understand how bias-infused political polling can often be. However, the extent polls play in the outcome of elections — and, conversely, how their artfully constructed questions and population samples often miss the mark — makes polling an essentially needless, if not dangerous, facet of the American electoral season.”

It seems this is one where we should listen to Trump’s people rather than some anonymous blogger. The message is – pay too much attention to or ignore the polls at one’s own campaign peril.

Beware the National Polls

One area where polls have always been misleading is in the national numbers. The Presidency is not won by the popular vote but rather by the Electoral College Vote. One need only ask George W. Bush and Al Gore about that.

The only polls that matter are in the so-called swing states. Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire are the states that general election candidates spend the most time in because their electoral votes are needed the most to win the Presidency. That doesn’t mean other states are not important but they are the best indicator of who will win the general election.

The bottom line is that polls do not win elections – votes do. Make sure you cast yours next month.

~American Liberty Report


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