The Institute for Family Studies (IFS) has been examining the correlation between fertility rates and how counties vote since 2004. They’ve done some very interesting research into the way family sizes relate to how a county votes.
The results may not surprise anyone reading this, but it’s nice to see it whenever common sense is reinforced by solid data. 2024 definitely got a boost from the fact that conservatives are having more babies than liberals.
The results show that Trump received a “baby bump” this year compared to blue urban counties with smaller family formation.
The 2024 election was the first time that Americans born between 2003 and 2006 were able to vote for president. The IFS found that fertility rates in “red” counties that voted predominantly for Trump have had much higher birth rates than in “blue” counties that voted mostly for Kamala Harris. The correlation is very strong.
The data shows that for every 10% increase in votes for Donald Trump this year, the fertility rate in that county was 0.09 babies over a woman’s lifetime. That may not sound like a lot of babies, but the difference shows up in a very big way at the tail ends of county votes.
In the counties around Washington, DC, for example, the vote totals were 75% to 25% or more in favor of Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. In counties that heavily favored Harris, the median total fertility rate is 1.31. In counties where 75% or more of the vote went to Donald Trump, the median total fertility rate is 1.84.
While neither number is as high as the necessary 2.1 total fertility rate needed for sustaining a population, that is a huge difference population-wide. The IFS data also shows that the correlation between conservative values and Republican voting rates is getting stronger over time.
In the 2012 election, counties that had a 10% increase in votes for Mitt Romney only had a fertility rate difference of 0.05 compared to counties that went for Obama. The difference being 0.09 in 2024 means the geographic relationship between voting Republican and having more babies has increased by 85%. That’s a big jump in just 12 years.
According to the IFS, fertility rates can now be predicted based on political party affiliation:
“Whereas in 2012 just 8% of the variance in fertility between counties was accounted for by vote share, that number has grown to 26% by 2024. Over a quarter of the variance in county fertility rates can be accounted for by political partisanship. Essentially, the parties are divided by family.”
The top 20% of the “reddest” counties (most Republican voters) have a total fertility rate of 1.76. In the top 20% of counties with the most independent voters, the total fertility rate is 1.59. The top 20% of the “bluest” counties have a total fertility rate of 1.37. For comparison, even the neo-socialist nations of the European Union have a total fertility rate of 1.46.
No wonder the Democrat Party is so steadfastly trying to replace the American population with ringers from the Third World. They’re not having babies, so they have to increase their numbers somehow.
In other words, if we want to continue to move the country forward in a positive way, we need to keep doing more of what we’re doing. Promoting incentives for family formation and having more babies was a centerpiece of Donald Trump and JD Vance’s campaign. If we want to continue this streak for years to come, we need to keep having babies!
That’s some nice food for thought as you’re thinking about New Year’s resolutions.
