Small donors are the key to a long, sustained presidential campaign. Big donors are a finite number, and once they max out their contribution amount to a campaign, that’s it. If you have a broad base of small donors, however, you can tap them again and again for donations.
The situation that all of Donald Trump’s opponents find themselves in is that they are completely reliant on big donors. Now that the second-quarter financials are out, we have a treasure trove of data that helps to analyze what’s really going on in each of the candidate’s campaigns. All of the data right now points to President Trump shocking the world again in 2024, just as he did in 2016.
Since the start of 2023, Donald Trump has raised a gob stopping $44 million from small-dollar donors. The average contribution has been around $30. That translates into 1.5 million individual donors who are willing to open up their wallets and support President Trump.
Joe Biden’s reelection campaign has raised just $10 million from donors who have contributed less than $200 this year. Phrased another way, Donald Trump has four times as many small donors than Joe Biden.
Why is this significant? Because the everyday, middle- and working-class people who will sacrifice out of their own pocket—especially in this economy—are people who will show up to vote in 2024 when it matters. It’s an unscientific metric for what’s going to happen in the primaries and the general election.
A big-money donor can contribute the max amount to Joe Biden’s campaign, but he can only vote once, just like the trucker, the plumber, the accountant, the Republican schoolteacher working behind enemy lines, or the drywaller who support Trump.
This phenomenon was what made Reince Priebus, former head of the RNC, drop all resistance to Donald Trump’s campaign in June of 2016. Priebus was blown away by the sheer number of donors that Donald Trump had by that point. He had taken in more individual contributions than any other Republican in history. The number of donors indicated that Trump was—and still is—truly the man of the people.
We shouldn’t get too worked up about Joe Biden anyway at this point. They’re going to have to bump him off very soon, if you look at the calendar.
Every state has different rules for filing to run for president and getting on the ballot for the primaries. The clock is ticking for Gavin Newsom, Susan Rice and any of the other Machiavellian schemers in the background who want to run. They also have other requirements such as signature collection, number of donors, and other factors to be taken seriously enough to get on the ballot.
Nevada is the earliest “purple” state with a filing deadline of October 10. Colorado is December 11. California is December 15 and Massachusetts is December 22. After those dates, it’s too late for a candidate to get on the primary ballot.
A lot of red states have varying deadlines as well, but those are the purple and blue ones that have “can’t miss” deadlines for any Democrat wanting to run for president. If any other Democrat plans to jump in the race, they have to hit that October 10 deadline in Nevada.
That’s sort of the buried headline in all of this. Joe Biden likely will not be in office much longer. Nine or ten weeks max, and then they have to bump him out of the way. As much as I shudder to think about it, Kamala Harris will be in the Oval Office by the end of the year. *Ugh*
But anyway, back to the small-dollar donor numbers.
Setting everything else aside except for the percentage of small donors that the campaigns have, Donald Trump is in first place. Vivek Ramaswamy is in second place, with 57% of his campaign cash coming from small donors. Chris Christie is surprisingly in third place, followed by Mike Pence, Nikki Haley and Tim Scott. Will Hurd is in seventh place and Ron DeSantis is all the way down in eighth place, with only 17% of his money coming from small donors. Barring something totally unforeseen, the Republican primary is over.